Unemployment held steady at 4.4 per cent in June, sparking predictions the Reserve Bank of Australia is more likely to raise interest rates again next month.

The latest labour force data shows 76,300 jobs were created last month, five times market expectations of 15,000 new positions, with 47,000 part-time jobs making up the bulk of the increase.

KPMG senior economist Terry Rawnsley said the steady jobless rate increased the chance of another rate hike following the RBA’s next two-day meeting on August 11, which would take the cash rate to a 15-year high of 4.6 per cent.

“Today’s data would just add to the case for a rate hike,” he told The Nightly.

“The strength of the labour market and core inflation remaining frustratingly high will give the RBA the justification it needs to increase rates, most likely in August.”

AMP deputy chief economist Diana Mousina is also banking on another rate increase next month.

“Today’s strong labour force data gives the RBA room to hike rates again, because there will be less concern that another interest rate increase will hurt the economy,” she said.

“The RBA would view today’s jobs data as indicating that the labour market is still a bit ‘tight’ — which means that wages growth will remain higher than is consistent with the 2-3 per cent inflation.”

With inflation at 4 per cent being well above the RBA’s 2-3 per cent target, a steady jobless rate means the Reserve Bank can still raise rates given unemployment is still below the 4.6 per cent level considered to be at the upper end of full employment.

But EY chief economist Cherelle Murphy said unemployment was still likely to increase as the RBA potentially hiked rates again, on top of three increases so far this year that have taken the cash rate to 4.35 per cent.

“Given the lagged impact of monetary policy, there remains the risk of a deterioration in labour market conditions,” she said.

“Inflation remains the central focus, and a labour market that is only gradually cooling gives the board more flexibility to keep rates higher for longer, or raise them further if needed, to tame inflation.”

The futures market sees a rate hike on August 11 as a 19 per cent chance, but traders are predicting a November rate hike.

Westpac is the only big four bank forecasting more rate hikes, but the major banks are all forecasting rate cuts in 2027.

The jobless rate fell in May after hitting a four-year high of 4.5 per cent in April, reaching levels last seen in late 2021 when Sydney and Melbourne were still in COVID lockdowns.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said this was a good result amid the Middle East conflict.

“Even in the face of all this global uncertainty and volatility, unemployment remains relatively low and more jobs are being created and that reflects the resilience of Australia’s economy and the progress we’re making together,” he said.

Victoria now has Australia’s highest unemployment rate of 5.1 per cent, making it the only state or territory to have a jobless rate not starting with a four, the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed on Thursday.

NSW had the lowest jobless rate of 4 per cent, which was lower than the resource-rich states of Queensland (4.3 per cent) and Western Australia (4.2 per cent) which have received interstate migration.

South Australia also had a below-average jobless rate, at 4.3 per cent, while Tasmania had the second highest level among the states of 4.9 per cent.

National youth unemployment was more than double the national average at 10.7 per cent.