Live updates from ASX reporting season: All the companies releasing their results to the market today

Will they, or won’t they?

The Wednesday meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy committee to raise rates looms as a line-ball decision.

The new year was supposed to have brought hope for Kiwi mortgage holders that the official cash rate might start to fall from 5.5 per cent.

Post-pandemic inflation forced the the RBNZ to raise the OCR to 5.5 per cent last year from a rock bottom 0.25 per cent in late 2021.

After eight months at that level, it was widely assumed the next move would be down.

However, a hawkish prediction this month from ANZ senior economist Sharon Zollner of two further rises to come, beginning this week, shocked analysts.

“We think in November the Reserve Bank sounded a little bit trigger happy,” Ms Zollner told TVNZ.

“They talked about hiking and they published a forecast for the official cash rate that showed 19 points of hiking when a hike is usually 25 points.

“We think they’re pretty close to the line and they just need a nudge rather than a shove, and we’ve had a nudge in the data.”

That includes huge levels of migrant arrivals, and a record net migration of 126,000 people in 2023.

“Employment is still strong. We’ve had a huge surge in the labour force growth with so many migrants coming in,” Ms Zollner said.

The benchmark consumers price index inflation is at 4.7 per cent in New Zealand, well down from from the mid-2022 peak of 7.3 per cent, but still above the central bank’s target of one to three per cent.

While Ms Zollner’s ANZ is the only bank tipping a rise, markets on the whole have priced in a 36 per cent chance of another 25 basis point lift.

Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr said the RBNZ was talking tough, but wouldn’t follow through.

“We expect the RBNZ to hold the cash rate at 5.5 per cent whilst maintaining a very forceful hawkish bias,” he said.

“But it’s a bit like crying wolf. Being hawkish is one thing, delivering a hike is another.”

The NZ Institute of Economic Research’s “shadow board” of eight economists recommended a hold.

“The continued easing in the labour market, annual CPI inflation and the slowing in GDP growth suggest that the OCR increases to date are having the dampening effect on the New Zealand economy as the RBNZ intended,” NZIER senior economist Ting Huang said.

“Several members pointed out that it is too soon to consider decreasing the OCR, given that domestic inflation pressures remain elevated.”

With more blind faith than a Dockers supporter, Blackburne Property Group’s Paul Blackburne has steered Subiaco back to the top of the ladder as the suburb continues its unstoppable winning streak.

Although there is no doubt his company’s $300 million 23-storey ONE Subiaco apartment tower has underpinned the long-suffering suburb’s remarkable comeback, it took a leap of faith to invest so much in an area that lost its mojo when it was stripped of its title as the home of footy.

“It used to be the place to go 20, 30 years ago and then it was just struggling and then it was even harder when we started construction,” he said.

“I knew it would come back eventually. Subiaco has changed so much since ONE has opened, it’s a good example of new development done well that can transform a town centre and bring life back to what was once a derelict eye sore.”

The Subiaco Hotel is now getting in on the action with a planned expansion.

Read the full story in Insider, free inside this Thursday’s The West Australian

Cockburn Cement owner Adbri has signed on for a $2.1 billion takover bid by NYSE-listed CRH and Victorian family dynasty Barro.

Barro and CRH revealed the acquisition in December and materials maker Adbri said on Tuesday that the parties had moved to a scheme implementation deed, which will need approval by a court and the Foreign Investment Review Board.

Read the full report here ...

Bitcoin retook the $US55,000 level for the first time since late 2021, supported by investor demand through exchange-traded funds as well as further purchases by MicroStrategy.

The largest digital asset added one to reach $US55,112 as of 9.45am in Singapore after a more than 5 per cent advance in the US session. Bitcoin’s price has increased 30 per cent since the turn of the year, extending a prolonged rally that has also stoked speculative appetite for smaller tokens like Ether and BNB.

A net $US5.6 billion has poured into a batch of landmark Bitcoin ETFs that began trading in the US on January 11, signalling a widening of demand for the token beyond committed digital-asset enthusiasts. An upcoming reduction in the token’s supply growth, the halving, is adding to the optimistic sentiment.

MicroStrategy, an enterprise software firm that buys Bitcoin as part of its corporate strategy, said Monday that it had purchased another 3000 or so tokens this month. The company now owns about $US10 billion in Bitcoin.

“We do not expect a major pullback from Bitcoin given its breakout and positive intermediate-term momentum,” Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies, wrote in a note.

The combined value of digital assets now stands at roughly $US2.2 trillion, according to CoinGecko, compared with a low of about $US820 billion during the bear market of 2022 when FTX and other crypto platforms collapsed.

Digital tokens are jumping even though investors have pared back expectations for looser monetary policy this year, evidenced by a rise in US Treasury yields.

“Bullish momentum in crypto is unfolding despite an uptick in rates,” Fundstrat Global Advisors Head of Digital-Asset Strategy Sean Farrell wrote in a note.

Bitcoin has outperformed traditional assets like stocks and gold this year. A ratio comparing the price of the token to the precious metal is at the highest level in more than two years.

Bloomberg

The local sharemarket is slightly lower this morning, with losses for the mining sector outweighing gains by the big banks, Coles Group and plumbing company Reece.

The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was down 11.3 points, or 0.15 per cent, to 7641.5.

The ASX’s 11 sectors were mixed at midday, with five up, five down and tech flat.

Read the full report here ...

Analysts at Moody’s remain upbeat on Coles, despite today’s profit slip.

“Coles’ half-year results for 2024 are aligned with our expectations,” says Sean Williams.

“The group’s credit profile continues to benefit from its strong market presence within the Australian supermarket and liquor retail sectors. Coles’ credit metrics remain well positioned with headroom to support its credit profile over the next 12-18 months.

“We expect the prevalence of at-home consumption to further drive supermarket sales as the impact of high interest rates and cost-of-living pressures weigh on Australian households.”

Shares in Alumina Limited have dropped 7.5 per cent in morning trade despite yesterday’s move by US partner Alcoa to buy the business.

Alumina owns 40 per cent of the local Alcoa operations, including mines in the South West, three refineries and a Victorian smelter. The Kwinana refinery is already set to be mothballed with more than 1000 jobs at risk.

The share price retreat means Alumina has given up almost all the gains following the announcement of Alcoa’s $3.4b bid.

Alumina posted a loss of $US150m in 2023, according to the unaudited accounts.

That follows a tough year for the joint venture, which featured a severe battle over environmental approvals following revelations of problems at its South West mines.

Read more on the takeover offer here ...