Oscars 2026 Predictions: Who Will Win Best Picture, Actor and Actress?

In all the years I’ve spent predicting the Oscars, I can hardly remember a season that felt so competitive until the very last minute.

Several major categories, including most of the acting races, still feel like tossups heading into the Oscars on Sunday. Adding to the uncertainty is the academy’s new initiative to make sure voters actually watch all the nominated contenders, which could have real implications in some of the tight contests.

This year, Oscar ballots were synced to the academy’s screening app, with entire categories greyed out until a voter was logged as having finished every nominee in that race. While members could check boxes to attest they had viewed the other contenders, many people I spoke with admitted that those tweaks had effectively guilted them into watching more movies.

Does that benefit a best-actor contender like Ethan Hawke, whose small indie Blue Moon was sampled more than it would have been otherwise? Or will the effect be felt more in specialized categories like documentary feature, which busy voters may have skipped en masse, leaving the ultimate decision to the die-hards who watch everything?

With all those thoughts swimming in my mind, here are my tentatively offered projections in each category.

BEST PICTURE

Winner: One Battle After Another

Bugonia

F1

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Train Dreams

Widely considered one of the greatest directors of his generation, Paul Thomas Anderson has received 14 Oscar nominations (including three this year), though he has never won. This year, voters finally appear ready to welcome the auteur into their canon.

Anderson’s One Battle After Another has taken the top prize at nearly every show this season, including the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and the directors and producers guild ceremonies. The latter group is an especially strong predictor of best-picture success, since the Producers Guild uses the same preferential ballot as the Oscars and shares significant member overlap with the academy.

Still, you can’t rule out a late surge from Sinners, Ryan Coogler’s vampire drama. It has earned fresh momentum since breaking the record for the most Oscar nominations, and it performed strongly at the Actor Awards, winning the ensemble prize and best actor for Michael B. Jordan. The energy was so electric that it recalled the night Parasite won the same ensemble award on its way to toppling the Producers Guild winner 1917 at the Oscars.

But those upsets tend to occur when the season-long front-runner is respected rather than loved. I don’t think that’s the case with One Battle After Another: Many voters adore this movie and that should be enough to safeguard its big win.

BEST DIRECTOR

Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

If you’re voting for One Battle in picture, you’re definitely voting for Anderson in director. What has surprised me is that a sizable chunk of Sinners voters I spoke to are opting for Anderson in the directing category, too. Maybe it’s just his moment.

BEST ACTOR

Winner: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

At the beginning of the season, I speculated that this Oscar was Chalamet’s to lose. Has he? The 30-year-old was recently defeated at the BAFTAs and the Actor Awards, revealing some resistance from industry voters. Still, I wonder if the academy’s long-time bias against handsome young A-listers in this category will also hinder the 39-year-old Jordan, who won with the friendlier Screen Actors Guild. If voters would rather reward a veteran, there are almost too many options: Do they choose DiCaprio, who led the likely best-picture winner? What about Hawke or Moura, who are well-liked and seemingly everywhere? Any of these five men can win, though I’m betting on Jordan, who is peaking at the right time.

BEST ACTRESS

Winner: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Emma Stone, Bugonia

With so many acting races giving me agita, thank goodness for Buckley, who has thoroughly swept this season. (Not even a late-arriving bomb in “The Bride!” could slow her momentum.)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Winner: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Delroy Lindo, Sinners

Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value

Penn, a two-time Oscar winner, should prevail thanks to his transformative performance and back-to-back victories at the BAFTAs and the Actor Awards. Voters who noticed that Penn was a no-show at those ceremonies may shift their support to contenders who seem to want it more, like Skarsgard or Lindo. Still, I think Penn is comfortably ahead in this category.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Winner: Amy Madigan, Weapons

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value

Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

This is a tight three-way race. Taylor had a well-watched victory speech at the Globes but managed no big awards since. Mosaku earned a BAFTA from her fellow Brits, though during a big night for Sinners at the Actor Awards, she lost to Madigan, 75, who has a compelling comeback narrative. I’d feel more confident predicting Madigan if Weapons had shown more strength in other categories, but after speaking to so many Oscar voters who are rooting for her, I think she can pull it off.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Winner: Sinners

Blue Moon

It Was Just an Accident

Marty Supreme

Sentimental Value

The path to best picture almost always involves a screenplay win. Whether Coogler’s film takes the night’s final prize, the writer-director is guaranteed to earn an Oscar in this category.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Winner: One Battle After Another

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Train Dreams

In 1998, Anderson received his first Oscar nomination for writing Boogie Nights. Nearly every film he’s made since has earned a screenplay nomination (and the few that didn’t, like Phantom Thread, arguably should have). Triumphing in this category will give him a long-overdue win.

CASTING

Winner: Sinners

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Secret Agent

Which film will win the inaugural casting Oscar? Unless voters are enchanted with the array of distinctive Brazilian faces in “The Secret Agent,” this award will probably go to one of the two strongest best-picture contenders. “Sinners” stands out for putting together a supersize ensemble that’s easy to keep track of.

ORIGINAL SONG

Winner: Golden (KPop Demon Hunters)

Dear Me (Diane Warren: Relentless)

I Lied to You (Sinners)

Sweet Dreams of Joy (Viva Verdi!)

Train Dreams (Train Dreams)

Is it gonna be, gonna be Golden? The anthemic earworm from KPop Demon Hunters ought to win this in a walk.

ORIGINAL SCORE

Winner: Sinners

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

One Battle After Another

One Battle After Another has the most distinctive themes, but it’s hard to beat the musical soundscape of Sinners.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Winner: One Battle After Another

Frankenstein

Marty Supreme

Sinners

Train Dreams

There’s a lot of pretty picture-making in this category, from the stunning Train Dreams to the deliciously dark Sinners. If the latter wins, Autumn Durald Arkapaw would become the first woman to ever earn the cinematography Oscar. But One Battle After Another has swept industry awards in this category and offers competition as steep as the rolling hills from the film’s bravura final chase.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Winner: Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

He’s known as a master of horror, but nothing seems to terrify director Guillermo del Toro more than the spectre of a small set. His production design has gotten so lavish lately that every set is the size of a football field, so if voters are inclined to reward the most production design, “Frankenstein” wins on acreage alone.

COSTUME DESIGN

Winner: Frankenstein

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

Sinners

Frankenstein puts Mia Goth in some pretty ostentatious outfits, so unless two-time winner Ruth E. Carter makes it a three-peat for her work in Sinners, all those gothic dresses ought to win the day.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Winner: Frankenstein

Kokuho

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

The Ugly Stepsister

Here’s the third category where Frankenstein can be considered the front-runner, though if Sinners manages an upset in any of these races, take that as the sign of a significant surge to come.

EDITING

Winner: One Battle After Another

F1

Marty Supreme

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Its incredibly propulsive prologue should be enough to earn One Battle After Another this win, but it helps that the rest of this nearly three-hour film passes in the blink of an eye.

SOUND

Winner: Sinners

F1

Frankenstein

One Battle After Another

Sirat

The cars do indeed go vroom in F1, which has led the season in sound awards so far. But there’s greater passion for “Sinners,” and I think that film’s sound mixing can engineer an upset.

VISUAL EFFECTS

Winner: Avatar: Fire and Ash

F1

Jurassic World Rebirth

The Lost Bus

Sinners

The last two Avatar films won this Oscar, and though voters appear to be fatigued with James Cameron’s sci-fi franchise, the category isn’t exactly filled with eye-popping alternatives. Barring a Sinners sweep, Avatar: Fire and Ash feels like a safe bet.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Winner: Sentimental Value, Norway

The Secret Agent, Brazil

It Was Just an Accident, France

Sirat, Spain

The Voice of Hind Rajab, Tunisia

Although The Secret Agent peaked at the right time, its late-season surge probably isn’t enough to unseat Sentimental Value, which earned more Oscar nominations across the board.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Winner: The Perfect Neighbor

The Alabama Solution

Come See Me in the Good Light

Cutting Through Rocks

Mr. Nobody Against Putin

Between you and me, this category has confounded me almost as much as the best actor race. The prison documentary The Alabama Solution gets high marks, though it’s not an easy watch. Come See Me in the Good Light and Mr. Nobody Against Putin may split the sad-but-inspirational vote. That leaves me picking The Perfect Neighbor, though this film — about the killing of a Black woman by her white neighbor in Florida — missed out on some guild wins it was favoured for.

ANIMATED FEATURE

Winner: KPop Demon Hunters

Arco

Elio

Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

Zootopia 2

As the academy has diversified its ranks, voters have been increasingly willing to go highbrow and international in this category, as demonstrated by recent winners “Flow” and “The Boy and the Heron.” Still, without a strong overseas entry this year, “KPop Demon Hunters” should slay all contenders.

ANIMATED SHORT

Winner: “Butterfly”

Forevergreen

The Girl Who Cried Pearls

Retirement Plan

The Three Sisters

Will this Oscar go to the accessible heart-warmer about ageing (Retirement Plan) or the avant-garde tear-jerker about the Holocaust (Butterfly)? It’s a tossup, but I’m picking Butterfly.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Winner: All the Empty Rooms

Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud

Children No More: Were and Are Gone

The Devil Is Busy

Perfectly a Strangeness

In this perennially wrenching category, the front-runner is All the Empty Rooms, a devastating look at the bedrooms left behind by children killed in school shootings.

LIVE-ACTION SHORT

Winner: Two People Exchanging Saliva

Butcher’s Stain

A Friend of Dorothy

Jane Austen’s Period Drama

The Singers

Over the years, I’ve noticed that short-film voters gravitate to French romance and Black Mirror-type allegories. Expect a win, then, for the en français allegory Two People Exchanging Saliva, which depicts a dystopian world in which chic Parisians aren’t allowed to kiss. C’est incroyable!

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

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