One of the Labor Party’s most experienced campaign strategists believes the Secret Harbour by-election in Western Australia shows One Nation, which easily won the once-safe Labor outer-suburban seat on Saturday, has evolved from a right-wing populist party into a serious contender for government.

Bruce Hawker, a co-founder of the famed Hawker Britton political strategy firm, said the Labor Party and Coalition will now have to debate One Nation’s policies directly rather than ridiculing, denigrating or ignoring Pauline Hanson’s party in the hope her supporters return to the traditional parties at state and federal elections over the next two years.

“Previously we thought of One Nation of just being a vehicle for the protest vote,” the 40-year election veteran told The Nightly.

“What we now see is a willingness to buy the Pauline Hanson message in significant numbers.

“They don’t believe that this is a joke party and they are going to put their support behind them because they hate the other main parties. They say that One Nation will govern well and they can win the election.”

Senator Hanson demonstrated on Monday her ability to effectively fight back against attacks from Anthony Albanese, who accused her party on Sunday at a Labor conference in Queensland of divisive, dishonest and dangerous behaviour.

The One Nation founder said the Prime Minister had “crossed a line” and had encouraged people angry with One Nation to commit political violence, citing the July 8 killing of British conservative ex-politician Ann Widdecombe.

After Assistant Foreign Affairs and Immigration Minister Matt Thistlethwaite defended Mr Albanese and called One Nation “dangerous” and a “threat”, Senator Hanson posted a photo she said was taken today in the Victorian city of Bendigo of graffiti with the words “Kill Pauline Hanson” next to a video-game character blowing itself up like a suicide bomber.

Senator Hanson said she received “that many death threats”.

“The incitement is happening in our educational system and (by) our Prime Minister who should know better than that,” she said at a press conference in Victoria.

The reference to Ms Widdecombe — an advocate for Christian values allegedly murdered with a hammer by a man with far-left political views — was particularly pointed because Mr Albanese has presented himself as a strong defender of women in politics. He was highly critical of the Liberal Party’s decision in February to remove leader Sussan Ley.

Hanson v Taylor

Saturday’s by-election appeared to be one of the most important held in a State seat in modern political history.

By-elections often deliver large swings, but the 30 percentage point increase in One Nation support was so big it immediately triggered speculation that four Federal Labor seats and one Liberal could fall at the next Federal election, which has to be held by May, 2028.

Voters upset with inflation, housing shortages, immigration and climate change policies chose a candidate with an admitted history of recreational drug use who moved to greater Perth only three years ago, Luke Herdegen.

He defeated an experienced Labor political operator who had worked as adviser to the party’s senior Federal minister and spent her whole life in the State, Georgia Tree.

An elections analyst, Kevin Bonham, said the Liberal candidate Ryan Robertson probably would have narrowly won without the surge to One Nation, reflecting resentment towards Mr Albanese’s left-wing Government from many working-class voters.

But the result confirmed what national opinion polls have reported all year: Senator Hanson has far more fans than Liberal leader Angus Taylor, which is translating into superior One Nation support.

On Monday morning a Newspoll in The Australian estimated One Nation’s share of the national vote at 30 per cent, followed by Labor on 29 per cent and the Coalition on 19 per cent. A Redbridge/Accent poll in the Financial Review reported figures that were within the margin of error of the Newspoll.

Worryingly for Mr Albanese, voters trust One Nation over the Labor Government by 39-to-19 per cent to manage immigration, one of the most sensitive challenges for middle Australia, according to Redbridge Group and Accent Research, despite protests from the Government it has already made big cuts to the number of visas issued.

“We’ve brought immigration down,” Social Services Minister Tanya Plibersek said on Seven’s Sunrise. “We’ve almost halved it.”

One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce replied: “No, I don’t believe you, Tanya. That’s the problem. Everyone’s just completely dispensed with any of your rhetoric. So you’re unbelievable.”

Liberals divided

A State election in Victoria in November is likely the next test for One Nation support. In New South Wales, where an election is scheduled for March, Liberal Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane said voting for One Nation would “guarantee” the re-election of the Labor Government.

Within the Coalition, One Nation’s victory exposed a split about how to respond to the threat from its right flank. West Australian Liberal leader Basil Zempilas said “the game has changed” when asked if voters should be encouraged to vote for One Nation if they were unhappy with the Coalition.

“Well, it is realistic and cognisant of the times and the mood of the people,” he told News24. “Now you can ignore that, or you can choose to work with it. And, clearly, we ran a very strong campaign and I will just say … those that have suggested otherwise have been either not in the field or just reading off talking points.”

The “not in the field” gibe appeared aimed at Federal Liberal MP Andrew Hastie, who last week suggested in several interviews the party wasn’t trying hard enough to win the seat.

One of One Nation’s most aggressive opponents within the Coalition, Mr Hastie sought donations from supporters on Sunday. He did not directly mention the by-election in Secret Harbour, which is almost entirely within his electorate, although he suggested One Nation’s surge could deliver his seat to the Labor Party.

“In my own seat of Canning, there’s a real risk Labor could win because the support we always counted on is now divided,” he said.

After being accused by party organisers of failing to help the campaign, Mr Hastie was seen on Saturday afternoon at Madora Bay Primary school, a polling booth in the south of the electorate. Rumours “of my absence from the campaign trail have been greatly exaggerated”, he said.

In a suburb popular with tradesmen and almost entirely white, Liberal Party support fell from 30 per cent in last year’s State election to 20 per cent in the by-election, according to Madora Bay booth figures.

A well-liked local MP, Mr Hastie won 43 per cent of votes last Federal election at the booth. If his support fell 10 percentage points across the whole electorate, he would probably still be elected — but on preferences from the Labor Party, which always places One Nation below Coalition candidates.

with Madeline Cove