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Independents' day prediction at ballot box

Maeve BannisterAAP
Independent Monique Ryan (l) and Liberal Josh Frydenberg (r) contest the Victorian seat of Kooyong.
Camera IconIndependent Monique Ryan (l) and Liberal Josh Frydenberg (r) contest the Victorian seat of Kooyong. Credit: AAP

Voters could deliver an independents' day at the federal election ballot box as data shows a sweep of new candidates on track to enter parliament.

While Australia's electoral system doesn't make it easy for independent candidates to win, political scientists say growing detachment from the major parties has created an opportunity for them.

High-profile, mostly female independent candidates have taken on traditionally Liberal-held seats promising to hold the major parties to account.

Data strategist Elisa Choy, described as an 'election whisperer', predicts Saturday's result will be historic for Australia based on thorough data analyses of voter activity online.

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The data gathered expects 13 new independents to be elected, the Liberal-National coalition to suffer a net loss of 19 seats and Labor to form a minority or slim majority government with at least 76 seats.

It shows 10 traditionally blue-ribbon coalition seats could fall, many of them to the so-called 'teal independents' running on a campaign of integrity and climate action.

Political scientist and Sydney University lecturer Sarah Cameron said support for minor parties and independents is often a protest vote to express disaffection with the major parties.

"It's hard to get accurate, seat-specific polling, so we'll need to wait and see how people vote on election day," she told AAP.

"Voters have become less loyal to parties and more likely to switch votes from election to election. At the last election, fewer than 40 per cent of voters reported that they always voted the same way."

But Prime Minister Scott Morrison says independents are not to be trusted.

"Do not vote for those teal independents ... these guys are a sham," Mr Morrison told 3AW radio on Friday.

"They're actually running to try and get rid of the government and that means their policies would crash the economy."

Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese said people were walking away from the Liberal Party because the party had walked away from them.

"The values that (Liberals) hold about individual liberty have been trashed, a government that seeks to divide people isn't in that tradition," he told reporters in Adelaide on Friday.

"They're not conservatives either because conservatives respect institutions. This is a government that have trashed institutions."

Labor campaign spokeswoman Tanya Plibersek said the number of independents taking on the incumbents showed women who were traditionally Liberal voters no longer felt there was a place for them in the party.

"If you look at the Labor Party in contrast, we are almost 50 per cent female already (in the parliament). We hope to get to our 50-50 target years ahead of schedule," she told Sky News on Friday.

"There is a place for women in the Labor Party that represents Australian women."

The research by Elisa Choy found sentiment around Mr Morrison's approach to women had been intensely negative for more than 18 months.

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