Government climate risk assessment outlines bleak future for Australian heatwaves, property values

Extreme climate change could drive hundreds of billions of dollars in losses to Australian property values over the coming decades, according to a long-awaited Government risk assessment, which also warns of more extreme heatwave days.

The first National Climate Risk Assessment predicts parts of Sydney and Brisbane could have floods for 10 months each year, while Fremantle and Hobart would be inundated for at least six months.

Crop yields would fall by 40 per cent due to more and longer droughts, hundreds of people could die in heat waves, and construction and mining productivity plummet with more days that people can’t work because of extreme heat, the report claims.

Natural disasters could cost the country more than $40 billion a year, property prices could fall by $611 billion by 2050, and the hit to GDP from days of work lost to heat waves could be as high as $423 billion.

Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen said it was clear the risks were cascading, compounding and concurrent.

The report highlights that the risks will be greatest for people in the outer suburbs of cities, rural and regional areas, and northern Australia.

“Anyone who says that climate change only matters to the inner cities should read this report and reflect on their position,” Mr Bowen said.

“There isn’t an Australian community that isn’t impacted by climate change going forward, and there isn’t an Australian individual for whom those impacts won’t be real and material.

“We aren’t working on reducing emissions for fun… We’re doing it because the impacts of our country are real, and importantly, the worst impacts are still avoidable.”

The risk assessment says each dollar spent on climate adaptation to prevent future losses could eventually lead to future savings of up to $10.

But it warns that some risks will never be able to be mitigated, such as sea level rise, and Australians will just have to learn to live with them.

The Government is expected to reveal its 2035 target for emissions reduction by the end of the week, before Prime Minister Anthony Albanese travels to New York to address the United Nations General Assembly.

Mr Bowen received the Climate Change Authority’s advice on Friday about the science as to what this target should be but is yet to take a position to Cabinet.

He said whatever target was set “will be controversial by definition” with people saying it was too high and others too low.

“It will be a target I’m very confident that we can look at with confidence that it can be achieved and with pride in its level of ambition,” he said.

Environmental groups want the target to be at least a 70 per cent cut on 2005 emissions levels and closer to 75 per cent.

However, big business has warned that a cut around 60 per cent would come with significant costs and anything higher might be unfeasible.

The minister acknowledged the risk assessment would be confronting to many people, but took a positive view of the opportunities that lay ahead.

“I would say to people, let’s be clear-eyed about the challenges, let’s be realistic about the threats, but also let’s be optimistic about the future, because if we take action, we can avoid the worst of the impacts,” he said.

“If we take action, we can create jobs and investment right across Australia.”

Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment has been released, predicting coastal flooding could occur as often as 193 days each year by 2090, with sea levels expected to rise by more than half a metre.