One Nation eyeing its first seat in WA lower house as Secret Harbour by-election looms following Papalia exit

One Nation fancies its chances, as a by-election in Perth’s southern suburbs looms as the first real measure of voter frustration with WA’s major parties. Paul Papalia will formally tender his resignation as Secret Harbour MP on Friday, triggering a poll likely to be in six to eight weeks. Author and former Madeline King staffer George Tree is the frontrunner to become Labor’s candidate, while the Liberal party and One Nation are keeping their cards closer to their chest. WA One Nation leader Rod Caddies said the party had been busy vetting a list of potential candidates while rumours swirled about Mr Papalia’s future. “We have got numerous candidates that are very capable,” he said. “We already do have some good candidates to choose from, but I am going to, as soon as (the by-election is) announced, I’m going to put it out to all our members to make sure we’ve got the very best candidate for Secret Harbour.” Liberal leader Basil Zempilas has also vowed to run a candidate, despite the risk a third-placed finish behind One Nation could prove a major embarrassment. He argues it will be worse for Labor - if they lose. “We simply cannot take and do not take anything for granted,” Mr Zempilas said. “What I’m confident of is we will find and select a quality candidate, and we’ll get everything behind them once those decisions are made, and we will run hard. we will campaign hard, and we will put our best case forward. “The people of Secret Harbour deserve an alternative other than the Labor Government to be able to vote for, and we will give them one of those.” In 2025, Labor won easily despite a double-digit swing against it. Mr Papalia received 46.6 per cent of the primary vote and 61.5 per cent of the two party preferred count over the Liberal Party’s Mark Jones. One Nation received just 8.4 per cent of the primary vote. Pauline Hanson’s party has since jumped ahead of both major parties in some national polls, while in WA the latest DemosAU poll found support for One Nation has quadrupled. Mr Caddies is hopeful the party could pick up its first ever lower house seat in WA. “If you look at what they (Labor) lost last time, you look at the demographics, I think One Nation are representing a majority of the people who live in that area,” he said. “I think we could turn Secret Harbour orange and sink Labor in Secret Harbour.” Premier Roger Cook predicted a “very tough” campaign, but warned the 34,571 registered voters in Secret Harbour that a vote for One Nation is a vote for chaos. “They voted against better Medicare. They voted against cheaper child care,” he said. “I understand that people have got legitimate concerns about their position at the moment, whether it is about the cost of living, whether it is about jobs, but One Nation simply tries to use those legitimate concerns and create division, division by blaming minorities. It’s not a solution for WA.” Mr Papalia’s own by-election victory in 2007 defied predictions of a protest vote against the Carpenter Government, which itself was ousted a year later. He warned against a protest vote for the sake of it this time around. “They expected to lose that, and we won, and we had a one per cent swing to us,” he said. “What I’d say about the electorate and the state is Western Australia is the best place in the country. There might be a lot to whinge about but, generally, all I’ve seen from One Nation is complaining about things. “We’ve got a great place, and people, I think, will recognise that and consider the consequences of not supporting that and defending what we have. “We’re a good Government, and people of Western Australia I think would recognise that.”