The SWFL run home: Where your team can finish and what they have to do to get there ahead of final round

Not that anyone had forgotten, but the Bunbury Bulldogs made a massive statement by storming home to beat Harvey-Brunswick-Leschenault and issue a timely reminder of their premiership credentials. But more importantly, the four points set up a mouth-watering derby with South Bunbury on Sunday. As they chase a second straight minor premiership, their fate is very much in their own hands. A fortnight ago, it appeared winning their final three games would confirm their spot at the top of the ladder, but after Augusta-Margaret River cruised their way to two thumping victories, that is no longer the case. The Hawks are still circling the first minor premiership of their 55-year history and the favourable draw, which has seen them put the pressure on in the last month, could be enough to get them over the line. Here is where your side can finish, and what they have to do to get there ahead of a bumper round 18. 1. Bunbury (14-3, 56 points) Their win over HBL did as much to hurt the Lions’ season as it did to boost their own. It means the Lions can’t make the top two, which of course means the Dogs can’t finish any lower than that. So they will now either bypass the first week, or the qualifying final. The Hawks sit just 2.67 percentage behind the Dogs, equal on points, so they will need to beat South Bunbury by some sort of significant margin to hold on. During what could be the most important Bunbury derby since they last met in a final back in 2014, they will have a fair idea of what needs to be done, with the Hawks’ clash with Carey Park starting 50 minutes earlier. 2. Augusta-Margaret River (14-3, 56 points) Facing sides who can’t make the final and may have somewhat checked out for the season can make for a downhill run home, but it’s still important to execute, and the Hawks have done just that. Facing Eaton at Glen Huon, they put their foot down after half-time, with an eight-goal third term sending them on their way to an 82-point victory. Likewise, it was a seven-goal final term against the Bulls on Saturday that saw them run away to a 90-point victory. Those two thrashings have seen their percentage move from nearly 17 percentage points back from Bunbury after round 15 to the 2.67 per cent deficit we see now. Given the difficulties the Tigers are likely to present the Bulldogs in the derby, a win by anything more than 10 goals would put the Hawks in the box seat for an historic number-one finish. 3. Harvey-Brunswick-Leschenault (12-5, 48 points) The loss to Bunbury hurt. In one fell swoop, the Bulldogs punted the Lions off the precipice of a top two finish and back into a battle for third. The top two is now an impossibility, and with a far superior percentage, a Busselton win over Collie on Saturday would see the Lions slip to fourth in the unlikely case they lose to Donnybrook. The Magpies will go in as strong favourites over the Eagles, who are still missing key puzzle pieces through injury, and given their strength on their home deck. A fourth-placed finish would be their lowest since 2018 — the last time they missed the finals — but third looks far more likely. 4. Busselton (11-6, 44 points) Since their rain-affected slug-fest against Bunbury in round 12, the Magpies have scored less than 99 points just once, and have put up eye-catching scores of 19.7 (121) and 24.12 (156) in the past two weeks. Wherever they finish, they are going to be a problem in September. Third-place is on the cards for the Pies, but if results don’t go their way, they could also slip to fifth. Finishing third would require the unlikely result of an HBL defeat to Donnybrook, but their far superior percentage means if they finish level on wins, Busso will earn the second chance. There are then three more likely scenarios. The first is that they win, and shore up fourth spot and a home elimination final. If they lose, South Bunbury will either win and relegate them to fifth, or lose and stay in fourth anyway. 5. South Bunbury (10-1-6, 42 points) It’s the time of year where clubs either rue or celebrate their draws, but for South Bunbury this season, their early season stalemate with Harvey appears to be more a help than a hindrance. It means they are a game-and-a-half clear of Collie, which means their first finals series since 2018 is a certainty. It also means if they win, percentage won’t be an issue, and if the Busselton result goes their way, they will jump into fourth. Despite breaking a derby drought and winning the first of the year at Hands Oval, they will go in as underdogs against a Bulldogs side who have been all-conquering in the past month. If they are to host the elimination final, they would need to break a Payne Park hoodoo that has troubled them since 2016, the year of their last premiership.