Australian news and politics live: Dutton predicts win, PM fears 2019 repeat and says Aussies deserves better

On Saturday, millions of Australians will head to the voting booth to have their say in the Australian Federal election.

And, while most will be watching the results on election night to see who will be leading the country for the next four years, others might be watching to see if they have had a win on an election result punt.

Election betting odds are often seen as an alternative poll of sorts, predicting who may take out Australia’s top Federal job.

On election eve, the odds were brutally updated, appearing to be more bad news for Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.

Sportsbet and TAB have kept Labor as their favourite to form Government on Saturday night, paying $1.06 and $1.08 respectively. For the Coalition, the odds have dramatically worsened with the bookies in just a few days, with Sportsbet and TAB now paying $10.50 and $8.00 respectively for the win.

In what may come as a welcome development for Labor, if the betting odds are anything to go by, bookies now predict Mr Albanese will form a majority Government, putting the outcome at around $1.50.

Mr Dutton’s Coalition is now at $36 to form a majority.

Read the full breakdown, including who bookies tip couple replace Peter Dutton.

The Nightly’s Ellen Ransley writes: This Saturday’s election is shaping up to produce a mélange of results. All the polls say Labor is almost certain to retain Government, it will just be a matter of whether they cling on to majority, or fall short – and if so, by how much.

Going into the election, Labor holds a notional 78 seats, the Coalition 57, the Greens 4, and the crossbench 11. The major parties need 76 of the 150 seats to form majority Government, but could govern with 75 by making a crossbencher the speaker.

A handful of marginal seats could swap hands, while there are serious challenges to electorates with more sizeable buffers. The teal wave that swept through capital cities in 2022 could extend into the regions this time, while the Greens face tough competition in their three Queensland seats, and One Nation’s vote is up across the country.

Psephologist Kevin Bonham told The Nightly said there were about 50 seats to pay close attention to – including most marginal seats on either side.

“If the polls are right, the median result is Labor slightly increasing its majority. There could reasonably be anything from Labor falls into minority by a few through to something lopsided – anything within that range,” he said.

“For Labor to fall deeply into minority, something would be deeply wrong… But you can’t be absolutely sure until you see what happens.”

Liberal sources know there’s a reality where they only win five or six seats come Saturday but are still hopeful a significant Labor backlash eventuates in the outer urban electorates.

Read the full story and see which seats near you are key.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has made a final impassioned plea to voters to choose “hope versus fear” on the eve of Australia’s Federal election.

Mr Albanese on Friday started his election eve campaign dash as began – at a Medicare urgent care clinic in Brisbane, spruiking Labor’s central campaign pledges on cost-of-living relief and more accessible healthcare.

In an early morning press conference expected to be his last before polling D-Day on Saturday, Mr Albanese turned on his opponents as being unfit for power.

“They are just not ready for government. Australia deserves better, and I’ll give them better,” he said in a fierce salvo that will likely be returned by Opposition Leader Peter Dutton later on Friday.

The Prime Minister accused Mr Dutton of treating Australians with contempt by “not coming up with any alternative policies” and “giving budget replies without any costings.”

“They have not gone through a single week of this campaign where they have not flipped and flopped,” charged Mr Albanese, referring to Mr Dutton’s earlier statement he would move into Sydney’s Kirribilli House rather than Canberra if elected as a “very significant moment.”

Read the full story.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton writes: Are you, your family, and our country better off today than three years ago? That’s the critical question for Australians at this election.

Consider what’s occurred on Labor’s watch.

For 16 months, the Albanese Government focused on the Voice referendum which sought to divide our country by ancestry and race. They took their eye off the economy. They’ve continued to spend taxpayers’ money irresponsibly — a staggering additional $425 billion since coming to power which has fuelled inflation, driven up interest rates 12 times, and created a cost-of-living crisis.

Under Labor, Australians have experienced the worst collapse in living standards in our country’s history — and in the developed world. Next year, debt will pass $1 trillion for the first time.

With Labor’s renewables-only energy policy trainwreck, your electricity bill hasn’t come down by $275 as Anthony Albanese promised on 97 occasions. You’re now paying up to $1300 more than promised. And it will continue to climb. Some 30,000 businesses have gone bust. Manufacturers have closed or moved offshore. And there’s warnings of blackouts and brownouts.

By opening the migration floodgates, Labor created a housing crisis. It’s brought in 1 million people in just two years — that’s 70 per cent more migrants than in any other two-year period in Australia’s history. There’s been more pressure on infrastructure and services. Medicare bulk billing has fallen by 11 per cent nationally.

Read Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s full opinion piece.

The Nightly’s Ellen Ransley writes: With less than 36 hours until polls close, both Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton are fighting for their lives as they embark on their final blitz to sell their respective pitches to millions of voters.

Neither believes Saturday’s results are guaranteed. Both are alive to the potential of a 2019-style shock.

The Prime Minister goes into Saturday ahead in the polls, but the Opposition Leader believes he could be in for a Scott Morrison-style miracle repeat.

He is hopeful the “quiet, angry Australians” make their disappointment and frustration at Labor felt when they head into the ballot box.

“I think there’ll be some big surprises on election night,” he said on Friday morning.

“I think we’re in for the fight of our lives, because if you look at the seat-by-seat analysis, there’s no doubt in my mind that we can win this election

“That’s exactly what happened in 2019 when quiet Australians went into the polling booth and said ‘I’m not going to reward the PM for the previous three years’. I think Australians are in that frame of mind.”

The “folly” of Labor taking victory for granted six years ago has weighed heavily on the PM’s mind, too.

On the offensive in the Brisbane LNP seat of Longman on Friday morning, Mr Albanese acknowledged he has a “mountain to climb”.

Just as Mr Dutton is hopeful for a 2019-style shock, Mr Albanese is hoping it doesn’t eventuate - but knows it’s a potential.

Read the full analysis.

Mr Albanese has attempted to spark inspirtation in Australians, turning to the topic of the country’s future.

“It is about the next three years. And in next three years, what we will do is to continue to see economic growth, continue to see the benefits that come from the transition to a clean energy economy,” he said.

Labor will “continue to invest in the resources sector, including critical minerals and rare earths, continue to make sure that we use the position we’re in.”

Australia has an “incredible advantage,” he said.

“We are in a position where you wouldn’t want to be any other country in the world, other than Australia, given the changes in the global economy.

“We can be incredibly prosperous and set ourselves up for the decades ahead, but we can’t do that by being fearful about the future.”

Anthony Albanese has hit his stride with a fired-up pitch to voters in what will be one of his final press conferences before election D-Day.

He focused on “hope versus fear,” accusing the Coalition of talking Australian down while Labor talks it up.

He spruiked Labor’s achievements over the past three years to achieve its 2022 mandate.

“That is what we have done with difficult circumstances being thrown at us.

“You know, the biggest global inflation spiral since the 1980s has meant that inflation hit double digits in some countries, unemployment hit double digits,” he said.

“Almost all of the major economies around the world had at least one quarter of economic contraction, and most had at most had more than that,” he said.

Mr Albanese has spoken about foreign affairs and Australia’s relationship with Pacific partners.

“We have invested in our relationships in the region and around the world. Australia is back as a respected partner in the Pacific,” he said.

The PM accused the Opposition of neglecting the issue of most concern to Pacific Island nations in Australia’s neighbourhood – the climate crisis.

He said the Coalition’s proposed cuts to the budget, including on overseas aid, have caused a “great deal of concern in our region.”

“We have a responsibility to be good partners. We have been declared by so many Pacific leaders to be the security partner of choice,” Mr Albanese said.

“But the key to credibility is action on climate change,” Mr Albanese added, accusing the Coalition of wavering on net-zero goals.

Anthony Albanese visited a school in Perth on Thursday and he has now been asked to grade his own performance as PM.

He confirmed that he will be voting for Labor, but adds that people will judge his Government’s record under “difficult economic circumstances.”

He then turned to his key election campaign messages.

“Real wages are growing, inflation has gone down,” Mr Albanese said.

“Unemployment is low, the lowest average unemployment in 50 years.

“We have produced tax cuts for every taxpayer, cost of living relief, all of which were opposed by the Coalition,” he said.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has highlighted the difference between Labor and the Coalition’s approach to Ukraine.

Mr Albanese has previously said Australia will consider any proposal to contribute to peacekeeping forces if there is a ceasefire

“One of the distinctions in this election campaign is that I have said, if there is peace in Ukraine, Australia would consider any proposal to participate as part of a coalition of the willing,” he said.

“We have participated, of course, in training Ukrainian soldiers. We’ve done that in the United Kingdom, that has been very effective.”

He then thanked the Australian Defence Force for their service.

“Every man and woman who wears our uniform deserves our thanks and respect,” he said, giving a shout-out to the ADF’s assistance in the aftermath of Cyclone Alfred.

He then switched back to Ukraine.

“Australia stands with Ukraine. Under my government, we will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes. We support their struggle for their national sovereignty, because it is also a struggle for the international rule of law.”